Delivery risk · DR-1 v0.1 · surveyed 2026-10-26
Will the capacity show up?
The compute market now runs on forward commitments — multi-year, non-cancelable, delivering 2026–2031. The question that prices them is not "what does a GPU-hour cost" but "will this tranche be energized, installed and running by the date in the contract." We grade the next unfinished phase of 10 announced AI sites on the ASSAY-1 Site & Grid fields (§2 H), publish a probability, and write it to an append-only, hash-chained ledger. Every forecast resolves on a date. The track record is the product: it cannot be backfilled.
| Site | Next phase | grid_status | Target | DR grade | P(on time) | P(≤6 mo late) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IREN Childress, Horizons 2–4 IREN → Microsoft |
Horizons 2–4 150 MW |
energized | 2026-Q4 | DR-B 0.69 | 65% | 85% |
| TeraWulf Lake Mariner, CB-4 (Fluidstack) TeraWulf (Fluidstack tenant) → Fluidstack, with Google credit support. Reported, not confirmed by a primary source, as the New York site in Anthropic's Fluidstack program. |
CB-4 (168 MW IT) 168 MW |
energized | 2026-H2 | DR-B 0.65 | 62% | 83% |
| Cipher Digital Barber Lake Cipher Digital (formerly Cipher Mining) → Fluidstack (Google backstops $1.73B of lease obligations) |
First data halls (initial 168 MW lease; last halls Q1 2027) MW n/d |
energized | 2026-Q4 | DR-B 0.64 | 61% | 83% |
| Microsoft Fairwater, Datacenter 2 Microsoft → Microsoft (self-use; serves OpenAI and Microsoft AI) |
Datacenter 2 MW n/d |
interconnect agreement signed | 2028 | DR-B 0.60 | 58% | 81% |
| SpaceXAI Colossus II (Anthropic capacity) SpaceX (SpaceXAI) → Anthropic (share of Colossus II not disclosed); SpaceXAI also trains here |
All SpaceX-contracted capacity delivered to Anthropic MW n/d |
hybrid | 2026-12 | DR-C 0.48 | 48% | 74% |
| Applied Digital Polaris Forge 1, Building 3 Applied Digital → CoreWeave |
Building 3 150 MW |
unknown | 2027 | DR-C 0.46 | 47% | 73% |
| AWS New Carlisle (Project Rainier), buildings 19–32 Amazon Web Services → Anthropic (Project Rainier) |
Phase 2 (SBN210, buildings 19–32, ~767 MW) 767 MW |
unknown | 2028-Q1 | DR-C 0.46 | 47% | 73% |
| Stargate Abilene, final two buildings Crusoe (Oracle operates OCI capacity inside) → Oracle → OpenAI |
Buildings 7–8 (no operator date; Q4 2026 is a third-party estimate) MW n/d |
hybrid | 2026-Q4 | DR-C 0.41 | 43% | 69% |
| Nebius New Jersey (DataOne Vineland) Nebius (site developed by DataOne Vineland) → Microsoft |
Phase 2 expansion / full-site completion MW n/d |
behind the meter | 2026-12 | DR-D 0.30 | 34% | 62% |
| Nscale Monarch Compute Campus (Anthropic building) Nscale → Anthropic (agreements signed 2026-08-25, up to ~$44.6B) |
First building for Anthropic (~460 MW, press figure) 460 MW |
behind the meter | 2027-Q4 | DR-D 0.28 | 32% | 60% |
Ledger: forecasts.jsonl · 11 entries · head c2d0bacaeffd92354a943e708ac5c049428efc1eff94de339a221d9296fc0eaf · 0 resolved so far. Data: sites.json (CC BY 4.0). Verify the chain: python3 verify_ledger.py forecasts.jsonl (script).
Method (DR-1 v0.1)
Each site's next unfinished phase gets five scores from public evidence only — filings, utility and ISO records, operator and offtaker statements, credible trade press. Every input is cited below its card.
| Component | Weight | How it scores |
|---|---|---|
| Power (grid_status of the next phase) | 35% | energized 1.0 · interconnect agreement signed 0.75 · hybrid grid + on-site 0.7 · behind-the-meter generation 0.6 · in interconnection queue 0.3 · unknown 0.2 |
| Build progress | 25% | next phase complete/commissioning 1.0 · an earlier phase operating and the next under construction (dated evidence) 0.8 · under construction, evidence within 120 days 0.6 · construction evidence older than 120 days 0.4 · announced only 0.2 |
| Hardware | 15% | accelerators installed in the next phase 1.0 · installed in an earlier phase, or delivery disclosed 0.6 · not disclosed 0.3 |
| Operator track record | 25% | prior sites delivered on time (evidence) 1.0 · mixed or limited history 0.6 · no history 0.5 · documented slips 0.3 |
| Delay penalty | — | −0.10 per distinct, sourced delay signal in the last 12 months (slipped date, permit fight, financing or equipment trouble), capped at −0.30 |
Score S = Σ weight × component − delay penalty, clamped to [0, 1]. Grades: DR-A S ≥ 0.80 · DR-B 0.60–0.80 · DR-C 0.40–0.60 · DR-D < 0.40. Probabilities: P(on time) = 0.10 + 0.80 × S; P(within 6 months of target) = P + (1 − P) × (0.3 + 0.4 × S), capped at 0.97 — a weak site is less likely to recover a slip quickly. Rounded to whole percentage points.
What this is not. v0.1 weights are stated priors, not fitted coefficients — there is no resolved history yet to fit them to. They will be refit in public once resolutions accumulate, and the refit itself is a ledger event. A grade describes the probability that announced capacity is physically energized on schedule; it says nothing about the creditworthiness of the operator or offtaker and is not investment advice. Corrections with a source move a grade the same week: corrections.
IREN Childress, Horizons 2–4 DR-B
Childress, Texas, USA · ERCOT (IREN-owned on-site substations) · operator IREN · offtaker Microsoft
| Next unfinished phase | Horizons 2–4 — 150 MW; public target 2026-Q4 (irisenergy.gcs-web.com) |
|---|---|
| Announced capacity | 200 MW IT across Horizons 1–4 (4 × 50 MW); 750 MW campus power |
| grid_status (§2 H) | energized — campus substations energized; Horizon 1 running for Microsoft since August 2026 |
| Power source | ERCOT grid via IREN-owned substations |
| firm / interruptible MW | n/d / n/d |
| Hardware | NVIDIA GB300 NVL72 bought from Dell (~$5.8B order); Horizon 1 operating; installed count not disclosed |
| Contract disclosure | IREN 8-K Ex. 99.1, 2025-11-03 (~$9.7B, 5 years, 20% prepayment) |
| Score | power 1.00 · build 0.80 · hardware 0.60 · track record 0.60 · delay penalty −0.10 → 0.69 |
| Forecast | P(next phase energized by 2026-Q4) = 65%; within 6 months of target = 85%. Resolves 2026-12-31. Ledger #2 a647ec832687e412 |
Progress evidence
- 2026-05-07 Q3 FY26: Horizon 1-4 on track for year-end delivery. globenewswire.com
Horizon 1-4 on track for delivery by year-end
- 2026-08-17 Horizon 1 (50 MW IT, DLC) delivered and accepted by Microsoft. datacenterdynamics.com
Horizon 1 has been delivered to and accepted by Microsoft
- 2026-08-27 FY26 results: Horizon 2 commissioning; Horizons 3-4 late-stage construction targeting Q4 2026. irisenergy.gcs-web.com
Horizon 2 commissioning underway
- 2026-08-27 Q4 call: all three remaining phases targeted in December quarter, mostly late in period. finance.yahoo.com
late in the period
Delay signals
- 2026-10-20 UNCONFIRMED: investor Jim Liu claims Microsoft-requested networking change requires recabling; Horizon 2 up to 45-day delay. No IREN/Microsoft confirmation. finance.yahoo.com
Horizon 2 is facing up to a 45-day delay
Power is in place, so the remaining risk is install and acceptance. Most of the three halls are guided to land late in the quarter, which leaves little slack. The 45-day Horizon 2 claim is unconfirmed but counted, conservatively. The earlier re-phasing from an H2 2025 target (secondary source) is reflected in the track-record score, not as a penalty.
TeraWulf Lake Mariner, CB-4 (Fluidstack) DR-B
Barker, Niagara County, New York, USA · NYISO · operator TeraWulf (Fluidstack tenant) · offtaker Fluidstack, with Google credit support. Reported, not confirmed by a primary source, as the New York site in Anthropic's Fluidstack program.
| Next unfinished phase | CB-4 (168 MW IT) — 168 MW; public target 2026-H2 (investors.terawulf.com) |
|---|---|
| Announced capacity | 378 MW IT contracted to Fluidstack (CB-3 42 + CB-4 168 + CB-5 168, per secondary sources) |
| grid_status (§2 H) | energized — site energized; 102 MW online after CB-3; first CB-4 hall in commissioning |
| Power source | Grid (NYISO), former coal-plant site with transmission |
| firm / interruptible MW | n/d / n/d |
| Hardware | Not disclosed by primary sources (third-party estimate: Google TPU) |
| Contract disclosure | TeraWulf Q2 2026 results (Fluidstack leases; Google $600M credit support activated on CB-3) |
| Score | power 1.00 · build 0.80 · hardware 0.30 · track record 0.60 · delay penalty −0.10 → 0.65 |
| Forecast | P(next phase energized by 2026-H2) = 62%; within 6 months of target = 83%. Resolves 2026-12-31. Ledger #10 c2d0bacaeffd9235 |
Progress evidence
- 2025-11-12 DCD: NY site likely the Fluidstack-TeraWulf Lake Mariner project datacenterdynamics.com
likely a 360MW Fluidstack-TeraWulf project
- 2026-08-05 CB-3 delivered early July; 102 MW online; Google $600M credit support activated investors.terawulf.com
completed delivery of CB-3 in early July
- 2026-08-05 336 MW under construction across CB-4/CB-5; first CB-4 hall commissioning investors.terawulf.com
has entered commissioning
- 2026-07-23 Epoch satellite: CB-4 mostly complete with generators still being installed; CB-5 shell complete, coolers partly installed epoch.ai
Building 2 is mostly complete (paraphrase)
Delay signals
- 2026-08-05 CB-3 guided for May 2026 delivery (Q1 release) but delivered early July; CB-5 moved from 2026 delivery (Q1 release) to early 2027 investors.terawulf.com
targeted to begin in early 2027
Power is in place and the first CB-4 hall is commissioning, so the H2 2026 target is reachable. But each prior building has slipped by weeks to a quarter. New York's July 2026 permitting moratorium covers new applications, so it bears on expansion beyond CB-5, not on this phase, and is not penalised.
Cipher Digital Barber Lake DR-B
Colorado City, Mitchell County, Texas, USA · ERCOT (300 MW interconnection approvals) · operator Cipher Digital (formerly Cipher Mining) · offtaker Fluidstack (Google backstops $1.73B of lease obligations)
| Next unfinished phase | First data halls (initial 168 MW lease; last halls Q1 2027); public target 2026-Q4 (sec.gov) |
|---|---|
| Announced capacity | 207 MW critical IT (168 + 39) within 300 MW gross |
| grid_status (§2 H) | energized — on-site substation under 300 MW ERCOT approvals; tenant in beneficial use since August 2026 |
| Power source | ERCOT grid via on-site substation |
| firm / interruptible MW | n/d / n/d |
| Hardware | Tenant network racks and CDUs being installed; accelerator type not disclosed |
| Contract disclosure | Cipher 8-K, 2026-09-24 (revised hall schedule, cost-share, 20-year term) |
| Score | power 1.00 · build 0.60 · hardware 0.60 · track record 0.60 · delay penalty −0.10 → 0.64 |
| Forecast | P(next phase energized by 2026-Q4) = 61%; within 6 months of target = 83%. Resolves 2026-12-31. Ledger #4 70c748459027e518 |
Progress evidence
- 2026-02-24 ~95% of long-lead equipment secured; design milestones met; on schedule. barchart.com
progressing on track with ~95% of long lead equipment secured
- 2026-08-04 Tenant has commenced beneficial use (partial occupancy, network rack deployment). investors.cipherdigital.com
tenant has commenced beneficial use of the facility
- 2026-09-25 Lease extended to 20 years via AI-lab follow-on commitment (~$5.2B incremental); Cipher says on track with revised schedule. stocktitan.net
Cipher remains on track with the revised delivery schedule
Delay signals
- 2026-09-25 Delivery revised from 'by September 2026' (Sept 2025 release) to Q4 2026-Q1 2027 after tenant-modification change orders; no hall delivered by original date. sec.gov
certain tenant-modification change orders to modify the design
Delivery has already slipped once, from September 2026 to Q4 2026–Q1 2027, on tenant design changes. Power is in place, and Cipher's other site delivered two months early. The cost-overrun split (Cipher bears the first $359.3M) is a financing exposure, not a delay signal, so it is not penalised.
Microsoft Fairwater, Datacenter 2 DR-B
Mount Pleasant, Wisconsin, USA · MISO; We Energies; ATC transmission · operator Microsoft · offtaker Microsoft (self-use; serves OpenAI and Microsoft AI)
| Next unfinished phase | Datacenter 2; public target 2028 (news.microsoft.com) |
|---|---|
| Announced capacity | No MW figure published by Microsoft; third-party estimates ~369 MW IT for Datacenter 1 |
| grid_status (§2 H) | interconnect_agreement_signed — 15-year We Energies electric service contract signed 2026-07-16 (a utility service agreement, not a MISO interconnection agreement); Datacenter 1 energized |
| Power source | We Energies grid; Microsoft subscribed to a planned gas plant awaiting PSC approval; solar PPAs |
| firm / interruptible MW | n/d / n/d |
| Hardware | NVIDIA GB200 NVL72 operating in Datacenter 1; Datacenter 2 hardware not disclosed |
| Contract disclosure | No compute offtake contract public; utility service contract reported |
| Score | power 0.75 · build 0.80 · hardware 0.60 · track record 1.00 · delay penalty −0.20 → 0.60 |
| Forecast | P(next phase energized by 2028) = 58%; within 6 months of target = 81%. Resolves 2028-12-31. Ledger #7 c54b987cd073f6be |
Progress evidence
- 2025-09-18 Fairwater described as single GB200 cluster; 315 acres, three buildings blogs.microsoft.com
a single, massive cluster of interconnected NVIDIA GB200 servers
- 2026-01-27 Village approved 15 additional datacenters with three new substations w.media
build 15 additional data centers in Mount Pleasant
- 2026-06-23 First facility fully operational; second facility scheduled 2028 news.microsoft.com
This facility is scheduled to be completed in 2028.
- 2026-06-23 Equipment began coming online in April 2026 wpr.org
fully operational
- 2026-08-10 Microsoft signed 15-year We Energies electric service contract 2026-07-16 pbswisconsin.org
15-year electric service contract
Delay signals
- 2026-08-10 Contract retains plant-location provision struck down by PSC; Red Oak Ridge gas plant still awaiting PSC approval pbswisconsin.org
retains power plant provision struck down by Wisconsin regulators
- 2026-07-22 Secondary: Paris RICE gas engines slipped July 2026 -> summer 2027; Cosmos substation June 2028 subject to coordination; Red Oak Ridge turbines Dec 2029-Jun 2030 measuredai.substack.com
subject to further coordination with Microsoft
Datacenter 1 came online roughly on schedule. Datacenter 2's whole-year 2028 target and Microsoft's balance sheet make it the most robust phase here, but the supporting generation and substation dates are slipping in regulatory filings.
SpaceXAI Colossus II (Anthropic capacity) DR-C
Memphis, Tennessee / Southaven, Mississippi, USA · TVA via MLGW (documented for Colossus I) plus on-site gas generation in Southaven · operator SpaceX (SpaceXAI) · offtaker Anthropic (share of Colossus II not disclosed); SpaceXAI also trains here
| Next unfinished phase | All SpaceX-contracted capacity delivered to Anthropic; public target 2026-12 (gizmodo.com) |
|---|---|
| Announced capacity | Nearly 2 GW compute target (Reuters via Wikipedia); 1.2 GW permanent gas plant under construction |
| grid_status (§2 H) | hybrid — mostly temporary on-site gas turbines and Megapacks, plus TVA/MLGW grid; permanent 41-turbine plant delayed |
| Power source | Temporary gas turbines (to be retired by 2027-07-14), 1.2 GW permanent gas plant under construction, Megapacks, grid |
| firm / interruptible MW | n/d / n/d |
| Hardware | NVIDIA GB200/GB300 deployed across Colossus II buildings (secondary counts) |
| Contract disclosure | Anthropic Form S-1, 2026-10-26 (up to $120.5B through 2029; ~$3.1B/month at full delivery) |
| Score | power 0.70 · build 0.80 · hardware 0.60 · track record 1.00 · delay penalty −0.30 → 0.48 |
| Forecast | P(next phase energized by 2026-12) = 48%; within 6 months of target = 74%. Resolves 2026-12-31. Ledger #6 a9449351b0592b24 |
Progress evidence
- 2026-05-06 Anthropic to use all of Colossus 1 (>300 MW, >220k GPUs); SpaceXAI training moved to Colossus 2 finance.yahoo.com
SpaceXAI had already moved training to Colossus 2
- 2026-10-20 SpaceX Q3: nameplate compute 1.7 GW at 9/30, ~2.2 GW end Oct, 2.5-3 GW by year-end; COLOSSUS II buildout continuing sec.gov
Expanded nameplate compute to 1.7 GW as of September 30, 2026
- 2026-10-20 Earnings call: infrastructure coming online at Memphis and Southaven fool.com
SI infrastructure continuing to come online at Memphis and Southaven
- 2026-10-26 Anthropic S-1: delivery complete by end-2026; ~$3.1B/month at full delivery; up to $120.5B through 2029 gizmodo.com
about $3.1 billion per month once all compute capacity is delivered
- 2026-10-26 Secondary: Colossus II ~770k GPUs / ~1.52 GW across 3 buildings; Minihard operational Oct 2026 measuredai.substack.com
a collection of data centers and supporting infrastructure near the Tennessee–Mississippi border
Delay signals
- 2026-04-14 NAACP et al. sued xAI/MZX Tech in N.D. Miss. alleging Clean Air Act violations from unpermitted Southaven turbines; plaintiffs signaled preliminary injunction tech-insider.org
a 420-megawatt fossil-fueled power station
- 2026-07-14 Reuters: 59 turbines installed without federal clean-air permits (vs 27 acknowledged) aiweekly.co
without securing federal clean air permits
- 2026-07-31 MDEQ agreed order: permanent 41-turbine plant delayed by supply chain; temporary turbines allowed past 12-month limit fox13memphis.com
the construction schedule for some of the 41 stationary combustion turbines
This operator builds faster than anyone in the set, and the compute is largely in place. The risk is legal and in the power: delivery through 2026 depends on temporary turbines that are being litigated and must be retired by July 2027, while the permanent plant is behind schedule. After the initial periods end (January and March 2027), either side can terminate on 90 days' notice.
Applied Digital Polaris Forge 1, Building 3 DR-C
Ellendale, North Dakota, USA · Montana-Dakota Utilities (RTO not stated in sources) · operator Applied Digital · offtaker CoreWeave
| Next unfinished phase | Building 3 — 150 MW; public target 2027 (sec.gov) |
|---|---|
| Announced capacity | 400 MW critical IT leased to CoreWeave (250 MW ready for service as of 2026-10-01); campus designed to 1 GW |
| grid_status (§2 H) | unknown — campus substation energized for Buildings 1–2; no interconnection capacity figure found for Building 3 |
| Power source | Grid (Montana-Dakota Utilities) |
| firm / interruptible MW | n/d / n/d |
| Hardware | Tenant (CoreWeave) accelerators not disclosed |
| Contract disclosure | Applied Digital 10-K FY2026 (400 MW, ~15-year leases; lessee may terminate on significant construction delay) |
| Score | power 0.20 · build 0.80 · hardware 0.30 · track record 1.00 · delay penalty −0.10 → 0.46 |
| Forecast | P(next phase energized by 2027) = 47%; within 6 months of target = 73%. Resolves 2027-12-31. Ledger #3 805bdb00bf293df3 |
Progress evidence
- 2025-10-27 Building 1 Phase 1 (50 MW) RFS for CoreWeave. ir.applieddigital.com
successful and on-time Ready for Service (RFS) for the first phase
- 2025-12-01 Building 1 Phase 2 completed; 100 MW building done. datacenterdynamics.com
this announcement marks the completion of that second phase
- 2026-07-01 Building 2 Phase 1 (75 MW) RFS; 175 MW live. globenewswire.com
bringing total live capacity at the campus to 175 MW
- 2026-10-07 Building 2 Phase 2 RFS 2026-10-01; 250 MW live across 10 halls; Building 3 under construction. ir.applieddigital.com
fully operational critical IT load at the campus to 250 MW
Delay signals
- 2026-10-07 Soft signal only: Aug 2025 guide put 150 MW Building 2 'mid-2026'; second 75 MW half reached RFS Oct 1, 2026 (~1 quarter after mid-year). Company did not characterize this as a delay; no Building 3 delay reported. datacenterdynamics.com
a second 150MW facility scheduled to come online in mid-2026
The best delivery record in this set: four phases at ready-for-service, three on or near guide. What holds the grade down is Building 3's power: no interconnection figure is public, and the target is only a calendar year.
AWS New Carlisle (Project Rainier), buildings 19–32 DR-C
New Carlisle, St. Joseph County, Indiana, USA · PJM / Indiana Michigan Power (AEP) · operator Amazon Web Services · offtaker Anthropic (Project Rainier)
| Next unfinished phase | Phase 2 (SBN210, buildings 19–32, ~767 MW) — 767 MW; public target 2028-Q1 (epoch.ai) |
|---|---|
| Announced capacity | ~2.25 GW facility at full build-out, 32 buildings (press-reported, not Amazon-stated); 18 buildings operating |
| grid_status (§2 H) | unknown — phase 1 is grid-fed and energized; for phase 2, the AEP 345 kV substations' December 2026 target comes only from a secondary source, and no interconnection agreement was found |
| Power source | Utility grid (I&M / PJM); backup diesel only |
| firm / interruptible MW | n/d / n/d |
| Hardware | AWS Trainium2 operating across Project Rainier; Trainium3 reportedly being deployed here (secondary) |
| Contract disclosure | No site-level terms; Amazon-owned capacity sold to Anthropic as cloud service |
| Score | power 0.20 · build 0.60 · hardware 0.60 · track record 1.00 · delay penalty −0.10 → 0.46 |
| Forecast | P(next phase energized by 2028-Q1) = 47%; within 6 months of target = 73%. Resolves 2028-03-31. Ledger #9 ee7468a2e6f322f5 |
Progress evidence
- 2025-10-29 Amazon: Project Rainier fully operational with ~500k Trainium2; St. Joseph County is one of its sites aboutamazon.com
Project Rainier is now fully operational
- 2025-10-29 Anthropic actively using Rainier for training and deployment aboutamazon.com
Anthropic is actively using Project Rainier
- 2026-06-16 18 buildings operating, 14 under construction; Trainium3 being deployed measuredai.substack.com
Eighteen data center buildings are operating today
- 2026-10-19 Epoch satellite: Bldgs 17-18 est. operational; ~1,037 MW IT, ~818k H100e; Bldgs 19-32 land cleared, no foundations seen as of Jun 2026 epoch.ai
1,037 MW IT power (paraphrase of table)
Delay signals
- 2026-06-16 SBN210 air-permit and wetlands decisions still pending; transmission timing is the pacing item measuredai.substack.com
no earlier than late 2027
Amazon has the best execution record on this campus: 18 buildings were running about 20 months after groundbreaking. But it has published no date for phase 2. Sources disagree on whether work has started: one says under construction, satellite imagery shows cleared land with no foundations as of June 2026. The build score takes the conservative reading. Target is Epoch's extrapolation.
Stargate Abilene, final two buildings DR-C
Abilene, Texas, USA · ERCOT · operator Crusoe (Oracle operates OCI capacity inside) · offtaker Oracle → OpenAI
| Next unfinished phase | Buildings 7–8 (no operator date; Q4 2026 is a third-party estimate); public target 2026-Q4 (epoch.ai) |
|---|---|
| Announced capacity | 1.2 GW facility across 8 buildings; Oracle reports 6 of 8 buildings / 618 MW delivered (2026-09-10 call) |
| grid_status (§2 H) | hybrid — ERCOT grid via on-site substations (1 GW substation appears complete) plus on-site gas turbines; a further on-site generation air permit is pending |
| Power source | ERCOT grid plus on-site natural-gas turbines |
| firm / interruptible MW | n/d / n/d |
| Hardware | NVIDIA GB200 NVL72 since June 2025; Oracle reports 131k GPUs delivered in its fiscal Q1 FY27 (call transcript) |
| Contract disclosure | No site-level lease terms public; delivery reported on Oracle's earnings calls |
| Score | power 0.70 · build 0.80 · hardware 0.60 · track record 0.30 · delay penalty −0.20 → 0.41 |
| Forecast | P(next phase energized by 2026-Q4) = 43%; within 6 months of target = 69%. Resolves 2026-12-31. Ledger #8 d3bec20a247d4e3c |
Progress evidence
- 2025-09-30 Crusoe: first 2 of 8 buildings energized; phase 1 live on OCI with early training/inference workloads crusoe.ai
up and running
- 2025-11-17 Eighth and final building topped out datacenterdynamics.com
topped off the eighth and final building
- 2026-03-10 Oracle: 200 MW operational, site on schedule bigcountryhomepage.com
200MW already operational
- 2026-07-28 Epoch satellite: Buildings 5-8 structurally complete and roofed, fit-out ongoing; 1 GW substation appears complete; ~421 MW IT estimated operational (May 2026) epoch.ai
structurally complete and roofed but not yet confirmed operational
- 2026-09-10 Oracle Q1 FY27 call: 6 of 8 buildings / 618 MW delivered; 131k GPUs delivered in the quarter; acceptance in 24 hours fool.com
6 of the 8 campus buildings, representing 618 megawatts
Delay signals
- 2026-09-10 Phase 2 'mid-2026' completion target missed for 2 of 6 buildings; no new date given americanbuildout.com
no stated completion date (paraphrase)
- 2026-09-21 Texas Governor halts all TCEQ data-center permits pending ERCOT audit; Crusoe's pending air permit 182126 for additional on-site generation may be caught (scope unclear) gov.texas.gov
all permits sought by data centers
Fast by any standard (618 MW in about a year), but each phase has landed one to two quarters after its stated target. Nobody has given a date for the last two buildings, and the Texas permit halt could catch the pending on-site generation permit.
Nebius New Jersey (DataOne Vineland) DR-D
Vineland, Cumberland County, New Jersey, USA · On-site generation; grid connection not verified from a primary source · operator Nebius (site developed by DataOne Vineland) · offtaker Microsoft
| Next unfinished phase | Phase 2 expansion / full-site completion; public target 2026-12 (newjerseymonitor.com) |
|---|---|
| Announced capacity | Up to 300 MW design capacity (Nebius; IT vs facility not stated); 350 MW maximum across 14 halls per developer |
| grid_status (§2 H) | behind_the_meter — Bloom fuel cells on on-site LNG (first block ready Oct 2026) plus 62 temporary gas generators that NJDEP found operating without air permits |
| Power source | On-site natural-gas fuel cells (Bloom) and temporary gas generators |
| firm / interruptible MW | n/d / n/d |
| Hardware | Accelerator model and count at Vineland not disclosed |
| Contract disclosure | Nebius Form 6-K, 2025-09-08 (~$17.4B; late-delivery termination and liquidated damages) |
| Score | power 0.60 · build 0.80 · hardware 0.30 · track record 0.60 · delay penalty −0.30 → 0.30 |
| Forecast | P(next phase energized by 2026-12) = 34%; within 6 months of target = 62%. Resolves 2026-12-31. Ledger #1 036c9b60f4af29db |
Progress evidence
- 2025-09-08 Microsoft contract signed; GPU services to deploy in tranches during 2025-2026 from Vineland. sec.gov
deployed in several tranches during 2025 and 2026
- 2026-08-12 Nebius says all Microsoft capacity tranches due to date delivered, two in the past month (site not named in letter). sec.gov
we've delivered all capacity tranches to Microsoft under the contract
- 2026-08-19 Nebius Q2 call: Vineland building construction finished; fit-out progressing; Vineland counted in 2026 connected power. fool.com
construction of the building itself finished earlier this summer
- 2026-08-18 Secondary report: first Microsoft tranche delivered Nov 2025, second Feb 2026. thecryptobasic.com
first tranche in November 2025 and the second in February 2026 (paraphrase)
- 2026-10-23 Bloom CEO: first fuel-cell power block ready for Nebius NJ; Bloom 'will not be the bottleneck' for 300 MW. Block size not given. blockspace.media
we have the first block of power ready for customer use
Delay signals
- 2026-08-11 DA Davidson cut target 30%, citing Vineland construction delays; facility may not complete in 2026. blockspace.media
the Vineland facility may not be completed during 2026
- 2026-08-12 City of Vineland issued two stop-construction orders (Aug 6 and Aug 10, 2026) covering LNG tank and Bloom fuel-cell work without permits; $2,000/day penalties. woodburywarbler.com
stop the work or face penalties of $2,000 per day
- 2026-09-22 NJDEP fined DataOne $1.07M for 62 unpermitted gas generators; ordered to obtain permits within 45 days or stop operating them. newjerseymonitor.com
by far the largest ever taken against a data center in New Jersey
- 2026-10-21 Sustain SJ (Earthjustice) served Clean Air Act notice of intent to sue DataOne entities, Nebius Inc. and Northeast Precast. earthjustice.org
illegally operating 62 gas-powered generators (paraphrase of press release)
Nebius reports every Microsoft tranche due to date delivered, so the contract is performing today. The risk is the power that serves it: the generators NJDEP fined must be permitted or switched off, and the permanent fuel-cell blocks are only starting to come online. Delay signals hit the 0.30 cap.
Nscale Monarch Compute Campus (Anthropic building) DR-D
Mason County, West Virginia, USA · None at launch: islanded behind-the-meter gas microgrid · operator Nscale · offtaker Anthropic (agreements signed 2026-08-25, up to ~$44.6B)
| Next unfinished phase | First building for Anthropic (~460 MW, press figure) — 460 MW; public target 2027-Q4 (techtimes.com) |
|---|---|
| Announced capacity | Initial phase 2 GW gross / 1.37 GW IT online 1H 2028 (S-1); Anthropic building ~460 MW (press, not S-1) |
| grid_status (§2 H) | behind_the_meter — Caterpillar G3500 gas gensets (deliveries Sep 2026–Aug 2027), no supply interconnection; generation not yet online |
| Power source | On-site natural-gas reciprocating gensets plus batteries |
| firm / interruptible MW | n/d / n/d |
| Hardware | NVIDIA Vera Rubin NVL72 specified; no delivery evidence |
| Contract disclosure | Nscale Form S-1, 2026-09-18 (Anthropic Services Agreements) |
| Score | power 0.60 · build 0.60 · hardware 0.30 · track record 0.30 · delay penalty −0.20 → 0.28 |
| Forecast | P(next phase energized by 2027-Q4) = 32%; within 6 months of target = 60%. Resolves 2027-12-31. Ledger #5 0cd9e4c7887617eb |
Progress evidence
- 2026-03-19 Caterpillar/Boyd CAT to supply 2 GW gensets; initial deliveries Sep 2026-Aug 2027 energytech.com
co-located and off-grid power
- 2026-07-01 Secondary analysis: power pad permitted Mar 2026, pipeline construction began Apr 2026, site works underway (WVDEP inspection records cited) measuredai.substack.com
generates all of its own power on-site, fully independent of the public electric grid
- 2026-09-18 S-1 discloses Anthropic agreements at Monarch for Vera Rubin NVL72, up to ~$44.6B; initial phase 2 GW gross / 1.37 GW IT online 1H 2028 sec.gov
aggregate payments to us of up to approximately $44.6 billion
- 2026-10-20 Reported talks for a second ~460 MW Anthropic deal for a second Monarch building datacenterdynamics.com
Power will be provided by Caterpillar's fast-response natural gas generator sets
Delay signals
- 2026-08-27 Microsoft exited its non-binding 1.35 GW Monarch LOI before Anthropic signed; anchor-tenant churn techtimes.com
exited the Monarch arrangement
- 2026-09-18 S-1 says Anthropic build funded by external financing not yet secured; commissioning-delay risk factor sec.gov
fund the deployment required under the Anthropic Services Agreements through external financing
Greenfield, off-grid, with financing not yet committed per the S-1. The operator's Narvik site is about six months late, and Microsoft left this campus before Anthropic signed. Reported terms let Anthropic terminate late tranches (per an analyst reading of the S-1, not verified in the filing text), so a slip here can cancel capacity, not just delay it.