{"rubric_version":"0.1","surveyed":"2026-10-26","rubric":{"components":[{"name":"Power (grid_status of the next phase)","weight":0.35,"rule":"energized 1.0 · interconnect agreement signed 0.75 · hybrid grid + on-site 0.7 · behind-the-meter generation 0.6 · in interconnection queue 0.3 · unknown 0.2"},{"name":"Build progress","weight":0.25,"rule":"next phase complete/commissioning 1.0 · an earlier phase operating and the next under construction (dated evidence) 0.8 · under construction, evidence within 120 days 0.6 · construction evidence older than 120 days 0.4 · announced only 0.2"},{"name":"Hardware","weight":0.15,"rule":"accelerators installed in the next phase 1.0 · installed in an earlier phase, or delivery disclosed 0.6 · not disclosed 0.3"},{"name":"Operator track record","weight":0.25,"rule":"prior sites delivered on time (evidence) 1.0 · mixed or limited history 0.6 · no history 0.5 · documented slips 0.3"},{"name":"Delay penalty","weight":null,"rule":"−0.10 per distinct, sourced delay signal in the last 12 months (slipped date, permit fight, financing or equipment trouble), capped at −0.30"}],"probability_map":"P(on time) = 0.10 + 0.80 × S; P(within 6 months of target) = P + (1 − P) × (0.3 + 0.4 × S), capped at 0.97 — a weak site is less likely to recover a slip quickly. Rounded to whole percentage points."},"levels":{"power":{"energized":1.0,"interconnect_agreement_signed":0.75,"hybrid":0.7,"behind_the_meter":0.6,"in_queue":0.3,"unknown":0.2},"build":{"complete":1.0,"prior_phase_operating_next_under_construction":0.8,"under_construction_recent":0.6,"under_construction_stale":0.4,"announced_only":0.2},"hardware":{"installed_next_phase":1.0,"installed_prior_phase_or_delivery_disclosed":0.6,"not_disclosed":0.3},"track":{"on_time_history":1.0,"mixed_or_limited":0.6,"no_history":0.5,"documented_slips":0.3}},"weights":{"power":0.35,"build":0.25,"hardware":0.15,"track":0.25},"license":"CC BY 4.0 — Compute Assay","sites":[{"site_id":"nebius-vineland-nj","name":"Nebius New Jersey (DataOne Vineland)","operator":"Nebius (site developed by DataOne Vineland)","offtaker":"Microsoft","location":"Vineland, Cumberland County, New Jersey, USA","iso_rto_or_utility":"On-site generation; grid connection not verified from a primary source","announced_capacity":"Up to 300 MW design capacity (Nebius; IT vs facility not stated); 350 MW maximum across 14 halls per developer","next_phase":{"label":"Phase 2 expansion / full-site completion","mw":null,"target":"2026-12","target_source":"https://newjerseymonitor.com/2026/09/22/nj-vineland-data-center-fined/"},"grid_status":{"value":"behind_the_meter","basis":"Bloom fuel cells on on-site LNG (first block ready Oct 2026) plus 62 temporary gas generators that NJDEP found operating without air permits"},"power_source":"On-site natural-gas fuel cells (Bloom) and temporary gas generators","firm_mw":null,"interruptible_mw":null,"hardware_status":"Accelerator model and count at Vineland not disclosed","contract_disclosure":{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513845/000110465925088312/tm2525580d1_6k.htm","label":"Nebius Form 6-K, 2025-09-08 (~$17.4B; late-delivery termination and liquidated damages)"},"progress_evidence":[{"date":"2025-09-08","observation":"Microsoft contract signed; GPU services to deploy in tranches during 2025-2026 from Vineland.","source_url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513845/000110465925088312/tm2525580d1_6k.htm","quote":"deployed in several tranches during 2025 and 2026"},{"date":"2026-08-12","observation":"Nebius says all Microsoft capacity tranches due to date delivered, two in the past month (site not named in letter).","source_url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513845/000110465926094568/tm2622968d1_ex99-2.htm","quote":"we've delivered all capacity tranches to Microsoft under the contract"},{"date":"2026-08-19","observation":"Nebius Q2 call: Vineland building construction finished; fit-out progressing; Vineland counted in 2026 connected power.","source_url":"https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/08/19/nebius-nbis-q2-2026-earnings-call-transcript/","quote":"construction of the building itself finished earlier this summer"},{"date":"2026-08-18","observation":"Secondary report: first Microsoft tranche delivered Nov 2025, second Feb 2026.","source_url":"https://thecryptobasic.com/2026/08/18/nebius-clears-vineland-hurdle-but-its-17-4-billion-microsoft-test-is-already-underway/","quote":"first tranche in November 2025 and the second in February 2026 (paraphrase)"},{"date":"2026-10-23","observation":"Bloom CEO: first fuel-cell power block ready for Nebius NJ; Bloom 'will not be the bottleneck' for 300 MW. Block size not given.","source_url":"https://blockspace.media/insight/bloom-energy-readies-nebius-power/","quote":"we have the first block of power ready for customer use"}],"delay_signals":[{"date":"2026-08-11","observation":"DA Davidson cut target 30%, citing Vineland construction delays; facility may not complete in 2026.","source_url":"https://blockspace.media/insight/nebius-target-cut-vineland-delays-2026-guidance/","quote":"the Vineland facility may not be completed during 2026"},{"date":"2026-08-12","observation":"City of Vineland issued two stop-construction orders (Aug 6 and Aug 10, 2026) covering LNG tank and Bloom fuel-cell work without permits; $2,000/day penalties.","source_url":"https://woodburywarbler.com/vineland-issues-two-stop-work-orders-at-dataone-data-center/","quote":"stop the work or face penalties of $2,000 per day"},{"date":"2026-09-22","observation":"NJDEP fined DataOne $1.07M for 62 unpermitted gas generators; ordered to obtain permits within 45 days or stop operating them.","source_url":"https://newjerseymonitor.com/2026/09/22/nj-vineland-data-center-fined/","quote":"by far the largest ever taken against a data center in New Jersey"},{"date":"2026-10-21","observation":"Sustain SJ (Earthjustice) served Clean Air Act notice of intent to sue DataOne entities, Nebius Inc. and Northeast Precast.","source_url":"https://earthjustice.org/?p=57657","quote":"illegally operating 62 gas-powered generators (paraphrase of press release)"}],"analyst_note":"Nebius reports every Microsoft tranche due to date delivered, so the contract is performing today. The risk is the power that serves it: the generators NJDEP fined must be permitted or switched off, and the permanent fuel-cell blocks are only starting to come online. Delay signals hit the 0.30 cap.","levels":{"power":"behind_the_meter","build":"prior_phase_operating_next_under_construction","hardware":"not_disclosed","track":"mixed_or_limited"},"score":{"components":{"power":0.6,"build":0.8,"hardware":0.3,"track":0.6,"delay_penalty":0.3},"total":0.3,"grade":"DR-D"}},{"site_id":"iren-childress-tx","name":"IREN Childress, Horizons 2–4","operator":"IREN","offtaker":"Microsoft","location":"Childress, Texas, USA","iso_rto_or_utility":"ERCOT (IREN-owned on-site substations)","announced_capacity":"200 MW IT across Horizons 1–4 (4 × 50 MW); 750 MW campus power","next_phase":{"label":"Horizons 2–4","mw":150,"target":"2026-Q4","target_source":"https://irisenergy.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/iren-reports-fy26-results"},"grid_status":{"value":"energized","basis":"campus substations energized; Horizon 1 running for Microsoft since August 2026"},"power_source":"ERCOT grid via IREN-owned substations","firm_mw":null,"interruptible_mw":null,"hardware_status":"NVIDIA GB300 NVL72 bought from Dell (~$5.8B order); Horizon 1 operating; installed count not disclosed","contract_disclosure":{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1878848/000114036125040072/ef20058139_ex99-1.htm","label":"IREN 8-K Ex. 99.1, 2025-11-03 (~$9.7B, 5 years, 20% prepayment)"},"progress_evidence":[{"date":"2026-05-07","observation":"Q3 FY26: Horizon 1-4 on track for year-end delivery.","source_url":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/05/07/3290719/0/en/iren-business-update-and-q3-fy26-results.html","quote":"Horizon 1-4 on track for delivery by year-end"},{"date":"2026-08-17","observation":"Horizon 1 (50 MW IT, DLC) delivered and accepted by Microsoft.","source_url":"https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/iren-delivers-first-phase-of-ai-capacity-to-microsoft-in-texas/","quote":"Horizon 1 has been delivered to and accepted by Microsoft"},{"date":"2026-08-27","observation":"FY26 results: Horizon 2 commissioning; Horizons 3-4 late-stage construction targeting Q4 2026.","source_url":"https://irisenergy.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/iren-reports-fy26-results","quote":"Horizon 2 commissioning underway"},{"date":"2026-08-27","observation":"Q4 call: all three remaining phases targeted in December quarter, mostly late in period.","source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/iren-q4-earnings-call-highlights-230429246.html","quote":"late in the period"}],"delay_signals":[{"date":"2026-10-20","observation":"UNCONFIRMED: investor Jim Liu claims Microsoft-requested networking change requires recabling; Horizon 2 up to 45-day delay. No IREN/Microsoft confirmation.","source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/video/iren-childress-delivery-microsoft-track-215655357.html","quote":"Horizon 2 is facing up to a 45-day delay"}],"analyst_note":"Power is in place, so the remaining risk is install and acceptance. Most of the three halls are guided to land late in the quarter, which leaves little slack. The 45-day Horizon 2 claim is unconfirmed but counted, conservatively. The earlier re-phasing from an H2 2025 target (secondary source) is reflected in the track-record score, not as a penalty.","levels":{"power":"energized","build":"prior_phase_operating_next_under_construction","hardware":"installed_prior_phase_or_delivery_disclosed","track":"mixed_or_limited"},"score":{"components":{"power":1.0,"build":0.8,"hardware":0.6,"track":0.6,"delay_penalty":0.1},"total":0.69,"grade":"DR-B"}},{"site_id":"apld-polaris-forge-1","name":"Applied Digital Polaris Forge 1, Building 3","operator":"Applied Digital","offtaker":"CoreWeave","location":"Ellendale, North Dakota, USA","iso_rto_or_utility":"Montana-Dakota Utilities (RTO not stated in sources)","announced_capacity":"400 MW critical IT leased to CoreWeave (250 MW ready for service as of 2026-10-01); campus designed to 1 GW","next_phase":{"label":"Building 3","mw":150,"target":"2027","target_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001144879/000114487926000048/apld-20260531.htm"},"grid_status":{"value":"unknown","basis":"campus substation energized for Buildings 1–2; no interconnection capacity figure found for Building 3"},"power_source":"Grid (Montana-Dakota Utilities)","firm_mw":null,"interruptible_mw":null,"hardware_status":"Tenant (CoreWeave) accelerators not disclosed","contract_disclosure":{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001144879/000114487926000048/apld-20260531.htm","label":"Applied Digital 10-K FY2026 (400 MW, ~15-year leases; lessee may terminate on significant construction delay)"},"progress_evidence":[{"date":"2025-10-27","observation":"Building 1 Phase 1 (50 MW) RFS for CoreWeave.","source_url":"https://ir.applieddigital.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/133/applied-digital-achieves-ready-for-service-for-phase-1-at","quote":"successful and on-time Ready for Service (RFS) for the first phase"},{"date":"2025-12-01","observation":"Building 1 Phase 2 completed; 100 MW building done.","source_url":"https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/applied-digital-completes-first-data-center-building-at-north-dakota-campus/","quote":"this announcement marks the completion of that second phase"},{"date":"2026-07-01","observation":"Building 2 Phase 1 (75 MW) RFS; 175 MW live.","source_url":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/07/01/3320913/0/en/applied-digital-delivers-second-building-at-polaris-forge-1.html","quote":"bringing total live capacity at the campus to 175 MW"},{"date":"2026-10-07","observation":"Building 2 Phase 2 RFS 2026-10-01; 250 MW live across 10 halls; Building 3 under construction.","source_url":"https://ir.applieddigital.com/_assets/_4c489316242fddfd74781595995684ad/appliedblockchaininc/news/2026-10-07_Applied_Digital_Reports_Fiscal_First_Quarter_2027__163.pdf","quote":"fully operational critical IT load at the campus to 250 MW"}],"delay_signals":[{"date":"2026-10-07","observation":"Soft signal only: Aug 2025 guide put 150 MW Building 2 'mid-2026'; second 75 MW half reached RFS Oct 1, 2026 (~1 quarter after mid-year). Company did not characterize this as a delay; no Building 3 delay reported.","source_url":"https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/coreweave-signs-on-for-another-150mw-of-capacity-at-applied-digital-data-center-campus/","quote":"a second 150MW facility scheduled to come online in mid-2026"}],"analyst_note":"The best delivery record in this set: four phases at ready-for-service, three on or near guide. What holds the grade down is Building 3's power: no interconnection figure is public, and the target is only a calendar year.","levels":{"power":"unknown","build":"prior_phase_operating_next_under_construction","hardware":"not_disclosed","track":"on_time_history"},"score":{"components":{"power":0.2,"build":0.8,"hardware":0.3,"track":1.0,"delay_penalty":0.1},"total":0.46,"grade":"DR-C"}},{"site_id":"cifr-barber-lake-tx","name":"Cipher Digital Barber Lake","operator":"Cipher Digital (formerly Cipher Mining)","offtaker":"Fluidstack (Google backstops $1.73B of lease obligations)","location":"Colorado City, Mitchell County, Texas, USA","iso_rto_or_utility":"ERCOT (300 MW interconnection approvals)","announced_capacity":"207 MW critical IT (168 + 39) within 300 MW gross","next_phase":{"label":"First data halls (initial 168 MW lease; last halls Q1 2027)","mw":null,"target":"2026-Q4","target_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1819989/000181998926000043/cifr-20260924.htm"},"grid_status":{"value":"energized","basis":"on-site substation under 300 MW ERCOT approvals; tenant in beneficial use since August 2026"},"power_source":"ERCOT grid via on-site substation","firm_mw":null,"interruptible_mw":null,"hardware_status":"Tenant network racks and CDUs being installed; accelerator type not disclosed","contract_disclosure":{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1819989/000181998926000043/cifr-20260924.htm","label":"Cipher 8-K, 2026-09-24 (revised hall schedule, cost-share, 20-year term)"},"progress_evidence":[{"date":"2026-02-24","observation":"~95% of long-lead equipment secured; design milestones met; on schedule.","source_url":"https://www.barchart.com/story/news/384358/cipher-digital-provides-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2025-business-update","quote":"progressing on track with ~95% of long lead equipment secured"},{"date":"2026-08-04","observation":"Tenant has commenced beneficial use (partial occupancy, network rack deployment).","source_url":"https://investors.cipherdigital.com/news-releases/news-release-details/cipher-digital-provides-second-quarter-2026-business-update","quote":"tenant has commenced beneficial use of the facility"},{"date":"2026-09-25","observation":"Lease extended to 20 years via AI-lab follow-on commitment (~$5.2B incremental); Cipher says on track with revised schedule.","source_url":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/CIFR/cipher-digital-expands-barber-lake-lease-term-to-20-years-increasing-kwddjbvyem35.html","quote":"Cipher remains on track with the revised delivery schedule"}],"delay_signals":[{"date":"2026-09-25","observation":"Delivery revised from 'by September 2026' (Sept 2025 release) to Q4 2026-Q1 2027 after tenant-modification change orders; no hall delivered by original date.","source_url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1819989/000181998926000043/cifr-20260924.htm","quote":"certain tenant-modification change orders to modify the design"}],"analyst_note":"Delivery has already slipped once, from September 2026 to Q4 2026–Q1 2027, on tenant design changes. Power is in place, and Cipher's other site delivered two months early. The cost-overrun split (Cipher bears the first $359.3M) is a financing exposure, not a delay signal, so it is not penalised.","levels":{"power":"energized","build":"under_construction_recent","hardware":"installed_prior_phase_or_delivery_disclosed","track":"mixed_or_limited"},"score":{"components":{"power":1.0,"build":0.6,"hardware":0.6,"track":0.6,"delay_penalty":0.1},"total":0.64,"grade":"DR-B"}},{"site_id":"nscale-monarch-wv","name":"Nscale Monarch Compute Campus (Anthropic building)","operator":"Nscale","offtaker":"Anthropic (agreements signed 2026-08-25, up to ~$44.6B)","location":"Mason County, West Virginia, USA","iso_rto_or_utility":"None at launch: islanded behind-the-meter gas microgrid","announced_capacity":"Initial phase 2 GW gross / 1.37 GW IT online 1H 2028 (S-1); Anthropic building ~460 MW (press, not S-1)","next_phase":{"label":"First building for Anthropic (~460 MW, press figure)","mw":460,"target":"2027-Q4","target_source":"https://www.techtimes.com/articles/325815/20260827/after-microsoft-exited-anthropic-signed-45b-deal-anchoring-nscales-ipo.htm"},"grid_status":{"value":"behind_the_meter","basis":"Caterpillar G3500 gas gensets (deliveries Sep 2026–Aug 2027), no supply interconnection; generation not yet online"},"power_source":"On-site natural-gas reciprocating gensets plus batteries","firm_mw":null,"interruptible_mw":null,"hardware_status":"NVIDIA Vera Rubin NVL72 specified; no delivery evidence","contract_disclosure":{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0002110365/000119312526395475/ck0002110365-20260918.htm","label":"Nscale Form S-1, 2026-09-18 (Anthropic Services Agreements)"},"progress_evidence":[{"date":"2026-03-19","observation":"Caterpillar/Boyd CAT to supply 2 GW gensets; initial deliveries Sep 2026-Aug 2027","source_url":"https://www.energytech.com/data-center-power/article/55365231/nscale-acquires-monarch-compute-campus-project-in-west-virginia","quote":"co-located and off-grid power"},{"date":"2026-07-01","observation":"Secondary analysis: power pad permitted Mar 2026, pipeline construction began Apr 2026, site works underway (WVDEP inspection records cited)","source_url":"https://measuredai.substack.com/p/microsoft-monarch-data-center","quote":"generates all of its own power on-site, fully independent of the public electric grid"},{"date":"2026-09-18","observation":"S-1 discloses Anthropic agreements at Monarch for Vera Rubin NVL72, up to ~$44.6B; initial phase 2 GW gross / 1.37 GW IT online 1H 2028","source_url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0002110365/000119312526395475/ck0002110365-20260918.htm","quote":"aggregate payments to us of up to approximately $44.6 billion"},{"date":"2026-10-20","observation":"Reported talks for a second ~460 MW Anthropic deal for a second Monarch building","source_url":"https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/anthropic-and-nscale-in-talks-for-second-45bn-deal-report/","quote":"Power will be provided by Caterpillar's fast-response natural gas generator sets"}],"delay_signals":[{"date":"2026-08-27","observation":"Microsoft exited its non-binding 1.35 GW Monarch LOI before Anthropic signed; anchor-tenant churn","source_url":"https://www.techtimes.com/articles/325815/20260827/after-microsoft-exited-anthropic-signed-45b-deal-anchoring-nscales-ipo.htm","quote":"exited the Monarch arrangement"},{"date":"2026-09-18","observation":"S-1 says Anthropic build funded by external financing not yet secured; commissioning-delay risk factor","source_url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0002110365/000119312526395475/ck0002110365-20260918.htm","quote":"fund the deployment required under the Anthropic Services Agreements through external financing"}],"analyst_note":"Greenfield, off-grid, with financing not yet committed per the S-1. The operator's Narvik site is about six months late, and Microsoft left this campus before Anthropic signed. Reported terms let Anthropic terminate late tranches (per an analyst reading of the S-1, not verified in the filing text), so a slip here can cancel capacity, not just delay it.","levels":{"power":"behind_the_meter","build":"under_construction_recent","hardware":"not_disclosed","track":"documented_slips"},"score":{"components":{"power":0.6,"build":0.6,"hardware":0.3,"track":0.3,"delay_penalty":0.2},"total":0.28,"grade":"DR-D"}},{"site_id":"spacexai-colossus-2","name":"SpaceXAI Colossus II (Anthropic capacity)","operator":"SpaceX (SpaceXAI)","offtaker":"Anthropic (share of Colossus II not disclosed); SpaceXAI also trains here","location":"Memphis, Tennessee / Southaven, Mississippi, USA","iso_rto_or_utility":"TVA via MLGW (documented for Colossus I) plus on-site gas generation in Southaven","announced_capacity":"Nearly 2 GW compute target (Reuters via Wikipedia); 1.2 GW permanent gas plant under construction","next_phase":{"label":"All SpaceX-contracted capacity delivered to Anthropic","mw":null,"target":"2026-12","target_source":"https://gizmodo.com/anthropics-deal-with-elon-musks-spacexai-is-even-bigger-than-we-knew-ipo-filing-shows-2000830618"},"grid_status":{"value":"hybrid","basis":"mostly temporary on-site gas turbines and Megapacks, plus TVA/MLGW grid; permanent 41-turbine plant delayed"},"power_source":"Temporary gas turbines (to be retired by 2027-07-14), 1.2 GW permanent gas plant under construction, Megapacks, grid","firm_mw":null,"interruptible_mw":null,"hardware_status":"NVIDIA GB200/GB300 deployed across Colossus II buildings (secondary counts)","contract_disclosure":{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2130357/000162828026067168/anthropicpbc-sx1.htm","label":"Anthropic Form S-1, 2026-10-26 (up to $120.5B through 2029; ~$3.1B/month at full delivery)"},"progress_evidence":[{"date":"2026-05-06","observation":"Anthropic to use all of Colossus 1 (>300 MW, >220k GPUs); SpaceXAI training moved to Colossus 2","source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/anthropic-to-rent-all-ai-capacity-at-spacexs-colossus-data-center-180327774.html","quote":"SpaceXAI had already moved training to Colossus 2"},{"date":"2026-10-20","observation":"SpaceX Q3: nameplate compute 1.7 GW at 9/30, ~2.2 GW end Oct, 2.5-3 GW by year-end; COLOSSUS II buildout continuing","source_url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026066482/spaceexplorationtechnologi.htm","quote":"Expanded nameplate compute to 1.7 GW as of September 30, 2026"},{"date":"2026-10-20","observation":"Earnings call: infrastructure coming online at Memphis and Southaven","source_url":"https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/10/20/spacex-spcx-q3-2026-earnings-call-transcript/","quote":"SI infrastructure continuing to come online at Memphis and Southaven"},{"date":"2026-10-26","observation":"Anthropic S-1: delivery complete by end-2026; ~$3.1B/month at full delivery; up to $120.5B through 2029","source_url":"https://gizmodo.com/anthropics-deal-with-elon-musks-spacexai-is-even-bigger-than-we-knew-ipo-filing-shows-2000830618","quote":"about $3.1 billion per month once all compute capacity is delivered"},{"date":"2026-10-26","observation":"Secondary: Colossus II ~770k GPUs / ~1.52 GW across 3 buildings; Minihard operational Oct 2026","source_url":"https://measuredai.substack.com/p/spacexsi-compute-ramp","quote":"a collection of data centers and supporting infrastructure near the Tennessee–Mississippi border"}],"delay_signals":[{"date":"2026-04-14","observation":"NAACP et al. sued xAI/MZX Tech in N.D. Miss. alleging Clean Air Act violations from unpermitted Southaven turbines; plaintiffs signaled preliminary injunction","source_url":"https://tech-insider.org/xai-colossus-2-naacp-lawsuit-illegal-gas-turbines-memphis-2026/","quote":"a 420-megawatt fossil-fueled power station"},{"date":"2026-07-14","observation":"Reuters: 59 turbines installed without federal clean-air permits (vs 27 acknowledged)","source_url":"https://aiweekly.co/alerts/xai-runs-59-unpermitted-gas-turbines-for-colossus-2-reuters-says","quote":"without securing federal clean air permits"},{"date":"2026-07-31","observation":"MDEQ agreed order: permanent 41-turbine plant delayed by supply chain; temporary turbines allowed past 12-month limit","source_url":"https://www.fox13memphis.com/news/turbines-can-continue-operating-in-southaven-as-spacexai-construction-faces-delays-docs-show/article_3a944c48-14fc-4fd0-94a7-67813ef4b59b.html","quote":"the construction schedule for some of the 41 stationary combustion turbines"}],"analyst_note":"This operator builds faster than anyone in the set, and the compute is largely in place. The risk is legal and in the power: delivery through 2026 depends on temporary turbines that are being litigated and must be retired by July 2027, while the permanent plant is behind schedule. After the initial periods end (January and March 2027), either side can terminate on 90 days' notice.","levels":{"power":"hybrid","build":"prior_phase_operating_next_under_construction","hardware":"installed_prior_phase_or_delivery_disclosed","track":"on_time_history"},"score":{"components":{"power":0.7,"build":0.8,"hardware":0.6,"track":1.0,"delay_penalty":0.3},"total":0.48,"grade":"DR-C"}},{"site_id":"msft-fairwater-wi","name":"Microsoft Fairwater, Datacenter 2","operator":"Microsoft","offtaker":"Microsoft (self-use; serves OpenAI and Microsoft AI)","location":"Mount Pleasant, Wisconsin, USA","iso_rto_or_utility":"MISO; We Energies; ATC transmission","announced_capacity":"No MW figure published by Microsoft; third-party estimates ~369 MW IT for Datacenter 1","next_phase":{"label":"Datacenter 2","mw":null,"target":"2028","target_source":"https://news.microsoft.com/source/2026/06/23/microsoft-completes-construction-on-first-datacenter-facility-in-mount-pleasant-wisconsin/"},"grid_status":{"value":"interconnect_agreement_signed","basis":"15-year We Energies electric service contract signed 2026-07-16 (a utility service agreement, not a MISO interconnection agreement); Datacenter 1 energized"},"power_source":"We Energies grid; Microsoft subscribed to a planned gas plant awaiting PSC approval; solar PPAs","firm_mw":null,"interruptible_mw":null,"hardware_status":"NVIDIA GB200 NVL72 operating in Datacenter 1; Datacenter 2 hardware not disclosed","contract_disclosure":{"url":"https://pbswisconsin.org/news-item/mount-pleasant-data-center-contract-retains-power-plant-provision-struck-down-by-wisconsin-regulators/","label":"No compute offtake contract public; utility service contract reported"},"progress_evidence":[{"date":"2025-09-18","observation":"Fairwater described as single GB200 cluster; 315 acres, three buildings","source_url":"https://blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2025/09/18/inside-the-worlds-most-powerful-ai-datacenter/","quote":"a single, massive cluster of interconnected NVIDIA GB200 servers"},{"date":"2026-01-27","observation":"Village approved 15 additional datacenters with three new substations","source_url":"https://w.media/microsoft-gains-approval-for-15-new-data-centers-in-wisconsin/","quote":"build 15 additional data centers in Mount Pleasant"},{"date":"2026-06-23","observation":"First facility fully operational; second facility scheduled 2028","source_url":"https://news.microsoft.com/source/2026/06/23/microsoft-completes-construction-on-first-datacenter-facility-in-mount-pleasant-wisconsin/","quote":"This facility is scheduled to be completed in 2028."},{"date":"2026-06-23","observation":"Equipment began coming online in April 2026","source_url":"https://www.wpr.org/news/microsoft-finishes-construction-mount-pleasant-data-center","quote":"fully operational"},{"date":"2026-08-10","observation":"Microsoft signed 15-year We Energies electric service contract 2026-07-16","source_url":"https://pbswisconsin.org/news-item/mount-pleasant-data-center-contract-retains-power-plant-provision-struck-down-by-wisconsin-regulators/","quote":"15-year electric service contract"}],"delay_signals":[{"date":"2026-08-10","observation":"Contract retains plant-location provision struck down by PSC; Red Oak Ridge gas plant still awaiting PSC approval","source_url":"https://pbswisconsin.org/news-item/mount-pleasant-data-center-contract-retains-power-plant-provision-struck-down-by-wisconsin-regulators/","quote":"retains power plant provision struck down by Wisconsin regulators"},{"date":"2026-07-22","observation":"Secondary: Paris RICE gas engines slipped July 2026 -> summer 2027; Cosmos substation June 2028 subject to coordination; Red Oak Ridge turbines Dec 2029-Jun 2030","source_url":"https://measuredai.substack.com/p/microsoft-fairwater-wisconsin-data-centers","quote":"subject to further coordination with Microsoft"}],"analyst_note":"Datacenter 1 came online roughly on schedule. Datacenter 2's whole-year 2028 target and Microsoft's balance sheet make it the most robust phase here, but the supporting generation and substation dates are slipping in regulatory filings.","levels":{"power":"interconnect_agreement_signed","build":"prior_phase_operating_next_under_construction","hardware":"installed_prior_phase_or_delivery_disclosed","track":"on_time_history"},"score":{"components":{"power":0.75,"build":0.8,"hardware":0.6,"track":1.0,"delay_penalty":0.2},"total":0.6,"grade":"DR-B"}},{"site_id":"stargate-abilene","name":"Stargate Abilene, final two buildings","operator":"Crusoe (Oracle operates OCI capacity inside)","offtaker":"Oracle → OpenAI","location":"Abilene, Texas, USA","iso_rto_or_utility":"ERCOT","announced_capacity":"1.2 GW facility across 8 buildings; Oracle reports 6 of 8 buildings / 618 MW delivered (2026-09-10 call)","next_phase":{"label":"Buildings 7–8 (no operator date; Q4 2026 is a third-party estimate)","mw":null,"target":"2026-Q4","target_source":"https://epoch.ai/data/ai-data-centers/directory/openai-stargate-abilene"},"grid_status":{"value":"hybrid","basis":"ERCOT grid via on-site substations (1 GW substation appears complete) plus on-site gas turbines; a further on-site generation air permit is pending"},"power_source":"ERCOT grid plus on-site natural-gas turbines","firm_mw":null,"interruptible_mw":null,"hardware_status":"NVIDIA GB200 NVL72 since June 2025; Oracle reports 131k GPUs delivered in its fiscal Q1 FY27 (call transcript)","contract_disclosure":{"url":"https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/09/11/oracle-orcl-q1-2027-earnings-call-transcript/","label":"No site-level lease terms public; delivery reported on Oracle's earnings calls"},"progress_evidence":[{"date":"2025-09-30","observation":"Crusoe: first 2 of 8 buildings energized; phase 1 live on OCI with early training/inference workloads","source_url":"https://www.crusoe.ai/resources/newsroom/crusoe-announces-flagship-abilene-data-center-is-live","quote":"up and running"},{"date":"2025-11-17","observation":"Eighth and final building topped out","source_url":"https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/crusoe-tops-out-final-building-at-openai-stargate-data-center-campus-in-abilene-texas/","quote":"topped off the eighth and final building"},{"date":"2026-03-10","observation":"Oracle: 200 MW operational, site on schedule","source_url":"https://www.bigcountryhomepage.com/news/stargate-abilene/fundamental-misunderstanding-oracle-refutes-recent-media-reports-about-abilene-data-center/amp/","quote":"200MW already operational"},{"date":"2026-07-28","observation":"Epoch satellite: Buildings 5-8 structurally complete and roofed, fit-out ongoing; 1 GW substation appears complete; ~421 MW IT estimated operational (May 2026)","source_url":"https://epoch.ai/data/ai-data-centers/directory/openai-stargate-abilene","quote":"structurally complete and roofed but not yet confirmed operational"},{"date":"2026-09-10","observation":"Oracle Q1 FY27 call: 6 of 8 buildings / 618 MW delivered; 131k GPUs delivered in the quarter; acceptance in 24 hours","source_url":"https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/09/11/oracle-orcl-q1-2027-earnings-call-transcript/","quote":"6 of the 8 campus buildings, representing 618 megawatts"}],"delay_signals":[{"date":"2026-09-10","observation":"Phase 2 'mid-2026' completion target missed for 2 of 6 buildings; no new date given","source_url":"https://americanbuildout.com/stargate-abilene/","quote":"no stated completion date (paraphrase)"},{"date":"2026-09-21","observation":"Texas Governor halts all TCEQ data-center permits pending ERCOT audit; Crusoe's pending air permit 182126 for additional on-site generation may be caught (scope unclear)","source_url":"https://gov.texas.gov/news/post/governor-abbott-directs-tceq-to-halt-data-center-permits","quote":"all permits sought by data centers"}],"analyst_note":"Fast by any standard (618 MW in about a year), but each phase has landed one to two quarters after its stated target. Nobody has given a date for the last two buildings, and the Texas permit halt could catch the pending on-site generation permit.","levels":{"power":"hybrid","build":"prior_phase_operating_next_under_construction","hardware":"installed_prior_phase_or_delivery_disclosed","track":"documented_slips"},"score":{"components":{"power":0.7,"build":0.8,"hardware":0.6,"track":0.3,"delay_penalty":0.2},"total":0.41,"grade":"DR-C"}},{"site_id":"aws-rainier-new-carlisle","name":"AWS New Carlisle (Project Rainier), buildings 19–32","operator":"Amazon Web Services","offtaker":"Anthropic (Project Rainier)","location":"New Carlisle, St. Joseph County, Indiana, USA","iso_rto_or_utility":"PJM / Indiana Michigan Power (AEP)","announced_capacity":"~2.25 GW facility at full build-out, 32 buildings (press-reported, not Amazon-stated); 18 buildings operating","next_phase":{"label":"Phase 2 (SBN210, buildings 19–32, ~767 MW)","mw":767,"target":"2028-Q1","target_source":"https://epoch.ai/data/ai-data-centers/directory/anthropic-amazon-new-carlisle"},"grid_status":{"value":"unknown","basis":"phase 1 is grid-fed and energized; for phase 2, the AEP 345 kV substations' December 2026 target comes only from a secondary source, and no interconnection agreement was found"},"power_source":"Utility grid (I&M / PJM); backup diesel only","firm_mw":null,"interruptible_mw":null,"hardware_status":"AWS Trainium2 operating across Project Rainier; Trainium3 reportedly being deployed here (secondary)","contract_disclosure":{"url":"https://aboutamazon.com/news/aws/aws-project-rainier-ai-trainium-chips-compute-cluster/","label":"No site-level terms; Amazon-owned capacity sold to Anthropic as cloud service"},"progress_evidence":[{"date":"2025-10-29","observation":"Amazon: Project Rainier fully operational with ~500k Trainium2; St. Joseph County is one of its sites","source_url":"https://aboutamazon.com/news/aws/aws-project-rainier-ai-trainium-chips-compute-cluster/","quote":"Project Rainier is now fully operational"},{"date":"2025-10-29","observation":"Anthropic actively using Rainier for training and deployment","source_url":"https://aboutamazon.com/news/aws/aws-project-rainier-ai-trainium-chips-compute-cluster/","quote":"Anthropic is actively using Project Rainier"},{"date":"2026-06-16","observation":"18 buildings operating, 14 under construction; Trainium3 being deployed","source_url":"https://measuredai.substack.com/p/aws-new-carlisle-data-center-campus","quote":"Eighteen data center buildings are operating today"},{"date":"2026-10-19","observation":"Epoch satellite: Bldgs 17-18 est. operational; ~1,037 MW IT, ~818k H100e; Bldgs 19-32 land cleared, no foundations seen as of Jun 2026","source_url":"https://epoch.ai/data/ai-data-centers/directory/anthropic-amazon-new-carlisle","quote":"1,037 MW IT power (paraphrase of table)"}],"delay_signals":[{"date":"2026-06-16","observation":"SBN210 air-permit and wetlands decisions still pending; transmission timing is the pacing item","source_url":"https://measuredai.substack.com/p/aws-new-carlisle-data-center-campus","quote":"no earlier than late 2027"}],"analyst_note":"Amazon has the best execution record on this campus: 18 buildings were running about 20 months after groundbreaking. But it has published no date for phase 2. Sources disagree on whether work has started: one says under construction, satellite imagery shows cleared land with no foundations as of June 2026. The build score takes the conservative reading. Target is Epoch's extrapolation.","levels":{"power":"unknown","build":"under_construction_recent","hardware":"installed_prior_phase_or_delivery_disclosed","track":"on_time_history"},"score":{"components":{"power":0.2,"build":0.6,"hardware":0.6,"track":1.0,"delay_penalty":0.1},"total":0.46,"grade":"DR-C"}},{"site_id":"terawulf-lake-mariner-ny","name":"TeraWulf Lake Mariner, CB-4 (Fluidstack)","operator":"TeraWulf (Fluidstack tenant)","offtaker":"Fluidstack, with Google credit support. Reported, not confirmed by a primary source, as the New York site in Anthropic's Fluidstack program.","location":"Barker, Niagara County, New York, USA","iso_rto_or_utility":"NYISO","announced_capacity":"378 MW IT contracted to Fluidstack (CB-3 42 + CB-4 168 + CB-5 168, per secondary sources)","next_phase":{"label":"CB-4 (168 MW IT)","mw":168,"target":"2026-H2","target_source":"https://investors.terawulf.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/144/terawulf-reports-second-quarter-2026-results"},"grid_status":{"value":"energized","basis":"site energized; 102 MW online after CB-3; first CB-4 hall in commissioning"},"power_source":"Grid (NYISO), former coal-plant site with transmission","firm_mw":null,"interruptible_mw":null,"hardware_status":"Not disclosed by primary sources (third-party estimate: Google TPU)","contract_disclosure":{"url":"https://investors.terawulf.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/144/terawulf-reports-second-quarter-2026-results","label":"TeraWulf Q2 2026 results (Fluidstack leases; Google $600M credit support activated on CB-3)"},"progress_evidence":[{"date":"2025-11-12","observation":"DCD: NY site likely the Fluidstack-TeraWulf Lake Mariner project","source_url":"https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/anthropic-plans-50bn-us-data-center-spend-starting-with-fluidstack-sites-in-texas-and-new-york/","quote":"likely a 360MW Fluidstack-TeraWulf project"},{"date":"2026-08-05","observation":"CB-3 delivered early July; 102 MW online; Google $600M credit support activated","source_url":"https://investors.terawulf.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/144/terawulf-reports-second-quarter-2026-results","quote":"completed delivery of CB-3 in early July"},{"date":"2026-08-05","observation":"336 MW under construction across CB-4/CB-5; first CB-4 hall commissioning","source_url":"https://investors.terawulf.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/144/terawulf-reports-second-quarter-2026-results","quote":"has entered commissioning"},{"date":"2026-07-23","observation":"Epoch satellite: CB-4 mostly complete with generators still being installed; CB-5 shell complete, coolers partly installed","source_url":"https://epoch.ai/data/ai-data-centers/directory/anthropic-lake-mariner","quote":"Building 2 is mostly complete (paraphrase)"}],"delay_signals":[{"date":"2026-08-05","observation":"CB-3 guided for May 2026 delivery (Q1 release) but delivered early July; CB-5 moved from 2026 delivery (Q1 release) to early 2027","source_url":"https://investors.terawulf.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/144/terawulf-reports-second-quarter-2026-results","quote":"targeted to begin in early 2027"}],"analyst_note":"Power is in place and the first CB-4 hall is commissioning, so the H2 2026 target is reachable. But each prior building has slipped by weeks to a quarter. New York's July 2026 permitting moratorium covers new applications, so it bears on expansion beyond CB-5, not on this phase, and is not penalised.","levels":{"power":"energized","build":"prior_phase_operating_next_under_construction","hardware":"not_disclosed","track":"mixed_or_limited"},"score":{"components":{"power":1.0,"build":0.8,"hardware":0.3,"track":0.6,"delay_penalty":0.1},"total":0.65,"grade":"DR-B"}}]}